Faisal Islam: The two big calls the chancellor has to make ahead of the Budget

OK THE SHORT VERSION IS THIS OIL WENT FROM SEVENTY-FIVE DOLLARS UP OVER A HUNDRED AND TEN-YEAR BOND YIELDS HIT FIVE POINT FOUR PERCENT WHICH IS A MASSIVE DOUBLE WHAMMY FOR THE CHANCELLOR FACING HIS VERY FIRST BUDGET AND JOHN HEALEY IS ADMITTING CONFLICT AND UNCERTAINTY ARE PUSHING UP INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES AND THE THING IS THE WHOLE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE IRAN WAR WHICH TRUMP AND THE IRANIAN PRESIDENT ARE SAYING MIGHT WRAP UP RIGHT AFTER THE US MIDTERMS ON NOVEMBER THIRD WHICH IS WILD BECAUSE THAT VOTE IS EXACTLY SIX DAYS AFTER THE BUDGET SO NOW THE CHANCELLOR HAS TO EITHER LOCK IN PERMANENT TAX AND SPENDING PAIN OR EAT INTO THAT TWENTY-FOUR BILLION POUND BORROWING HEADROOM WHILE SURPRISINGLY CONSUMER CONFIDENCE JUST HIT A TWO-YEAR HIGH CALLED THE BURNHAM BOUNCE. OK I AM GOING TO GO SHOUT AT A WALL.

I CANNOT BE THE ONLY ONE WHO SAW THIS BECAUSE CHANCELLOR JOHN HEALEY IS ABOUT TO DECIDE WHETHER TO LOCK IN PERMANENT TAX AND SPENDING PAIN OR EAT INTO THAT TWENTY-FOUR BILLION POUND BORROWING HEADROOM LEFT BY RACHEL REEVES AND THE WHOLE BUDGET TURNS ON WHETHER THE IRAN WAR SUDDENLY ENDS WHICH STARTED WHEN OIL SHOT OVER A HUNDRED DOLLARS AND TEN-YEAR BOND YIELDS JUMPED TO FIVE POINT FOUR PERCENT AND THE THING IS BOTH DONALD TRUMP AND PRESIDENT PEZESHKIAN ARE SIGNALING AT THE UN THAT PEACE TALKS COULD WAIT UNTIL RIGHT AFTER THE US MIDTERMS ON NOVEMBER THIRD WHICH IS WILD BECAUSE THAT IS EXACTLY SIX DAYS AFTER BUDGET DAY SO HE HAS TO GUESS AN ENTIRE WAR TIMELINE WHILE CONSUMER SPIRITS ARE APPARENTLY AT A TWO-YEAR HIGH FROM THE BURNHAM BOUNCE AND THE WORLD CUP. ANYWAY SOMEBODY HAS TO ANSWER FOR THAT.

Ahead of his first budget, the UK chancellor must weigh permanent tax and spending decisions against borrowing headroom amid market shocks linked to the Iran conflict.

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